Re: ID cards - What wasn't mentioned about the results of the consultation exercise

[Roland Perry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>]

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Owen Lewis 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes
>       -       The number of responses in the consultation (<800) is smaller that the
> sample a professional polling organisation would have used (=>1000?).
> Perhaps a statistician might like to give us an expert opinion on the
> validity of a self selecting sample of this size?

The American pollsters on TV this morning are saying that a *carefully 
selected* representative sample of 1000 voters [asked one question] will 
result in a +/- 3% accuracy. As one of then said "if the result appears 
to say Bush will win by 2%, then problems with the sample could mean 
that actually Kerry might win by 1%".

They then said that to get 1% accuracy you'd need a sample of 3,000, 
which is suspiciously linear, and therefore I doubt it.

As for consultation responses, all that really indicates is how well 
mobilised the various pressure groups are.
--
Roland Perry